With the S&P 500 and NASDAQ touching record levels in the past two weeks, many investors are asking themselves what factors are in place to drive stock higher? Corporate earnings have always been an important contributing factor in supporting stock prices. The bull market of the past five years has been supported by earning increases quarter over quarter. Let’s take a closer look at where we are so far for first quarter earnings and a couple of factors we are watching closely:
Solid Earnings with Slipping Revenues
So far, just over 40% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings for the first quarter. About 70% have beaten their estimates, but only 47% have beat on revenues, the lowest level in two years. This means top line sales numbers have softened. Technology names have shown continued strength with internet and cloud focused companies outperforming their consumer based peers.
WHAT WE ARE WATCHING
Currency Matters
Over the past six months, the dollar has rallied more than twenty percent against the Euro and Asian currencies. While this is a positive for those planning to travel abroad as their dollar buys more, this does present a challenge to US exports. As our currency strengthens, it becomes more costly for foreign consumers to buy products of S&P 500 companies. Many companies have already lowered guidance and expectations of future revenues due to this dragging effect. The bar being set lower is one reason stocks have reacted positively over the last week despite slips in revenue.
M&A Activity
Pharma and health care still represent hot spots in recent Wall Street deals. Last week, the Wall Street Journal indicated there has been over 180 billion in pharma mergers globally so far in 2015. This follows a record year of 280 billion of pharma deals in 2014. The low interest rate, low inflation backdrop continues to provide a supportive backdrop for further merger and acquisition activity.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Our team remains positive in our view of global equities. The market is going to have more wind in its face as we head into summer, given current elevated valuations and pressure on earnings from a stronger dollar. A slightly more defensive position that provides buffer is warranted given the heightened volatility that will likely persist.