As we approach the end of the first quarter earnings season, we are able to report that 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported, with 75% of those reporting earnings above the mean estimate and 54% reporting sales above the mean estimate. The blended earnings growth rate is 2.2%. Seven sectors have reported higher earnings relative to a year ago led by the Telecom and Utilities sectors. Three sectors have reported lower earnings relative to a year ago which include Financials and Energy. Overall we view these Q1 results as positive for the stock market and with a 12 month forward PE ratio of 15.2, we believe stocks are reasonably priced.
We remain convinced that US growth will accelerate in the coming quarters. Our forecast is for 3-3.5% GDP growth for the next three quarters, the most sustained period of +3% growth since 2005. With Macro getting better and still very high cash levels, this could be a year to buy in May as opposed to the traditional “Sell in May” philosophy.
A trend that we have been tracking is a change in style leadership. This change is away from the price momentum speculative growth plays such as biotech stocks, 3D printing stocks, social media and internet names and into value stocks. In our view, the ongoing shift in style leadership away from growth into value stocks has at least several more months to play out. This view is based on the fact that statistically a turn in style leadership lasts an average of 3-6 months and that relative valuations between growth stocks and value stocks are close to 10 year high levels. We have included a chart below which shows how this change in leadership has developed.
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